How it works
How to plan your BFCM numbers
Set your baseline monthly revenue
Take your last 3-6 months average, excluding any previous Q4. This gives a stable trend that BFCM gets compared against.
Factor in YoY growth
How much faster are you growing vs last year? Early-stage DTC brands often hit 50-100% YoY. Established brands run 15-30%. Use your actual growth rate, not aspiration.
Pick a BFCM multiplier by category
Apparel: 3-5×. Beauty: 2-4×. Tech/electronics: 4-6×. Home/lifestyle: 3-4×. Food/grocery: 1.5-2.5×. Use the high end if you discount aggressively, low end if you stay at full price.
BFCM planning essentials
Projections are for planning ad budget, inventory, and CX staffing. Get them wrong and you either stockout or waste cash.
The BFCM weekend carries the month
A large share of your November revenue typically lands in the 4-day window from Black Friday to Cyber Monday. Plan inventory and CX capacity around that compression, not the monthly average.
Ad CPMs spike in November
Meta and TikTok ad auctions get crowded. Expect CPMs well above your Q3 baseline. Budget more than your calculator output for the same ROAS, or start retargeting earlier (mid-October) at normal CPMs.
Reviews convert BFCM traffic better
BFCM shoppers are price-driven but risk-averse. They need reassurance fast, and visible reviews from real customers give it to them. Make sure every BFCM landing page shows social proof.
Start warming lists in September
Your owned audiences (email, SMS, customer base) drive 40-60% of BFCM revenue for most brands. Start growing them in September with lead magnets, VIP early access signups, and re-engagement campaigns.
Inventory: 2× the projection, not 1×
Ordering exactly to projection leaves no margin for viral products or last-minute surges. Many brands order well above their projection on hero SKUs and accept the inventory risk.
More free tools
All tools →FAQ
Questions, answered
Officially the Friday after US Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday. Increasingly, brands start promotions in early November (Cyber Week, Cyber November) to capture share and avoid the crowded weekend. Most brands run promos from Nov 10-ish through Cyber Monday.
Apparel and fashion: 3-5× your normal month. Beauty: 2-4×. Electronics: 4-6×. Home goods: 3-4×. Food and supplements: 1.5-2.5×. These assume you're actively running promotions. Brands that don't discount see 1.2-1.5× at most.
It depends on brand positioning. DTC volume brands (apparel, accessories) need 20-40% off to compete. Premium and luxury brands can run smaller promotions (10-15%) or bundle offers without tanking brand equity. Never match a competitor's 70% off unless you have the margin to support it.
Calculate your target revenue, divide by target ROAS (say 3:1), and you have ad budget. For BFCM specifically, CPMs run well above normal, so plan a bigger budget than a normal month with similar revenue goals. Retargeting ads (owned audiences) are often the highest-ROAS channel.
Use industry category multipliers (3× for apparel, 4× for electronics) applied to your recent monthly average. Accept that the projection will be wide. Order inventory conservatively, plan ad budget flexibly, and reinvest actual early-BFCM results into the remaining days.
Get reviews up before BFCM
Your BFCM ad budget is already paid. The conversion rate decides whether you profit or lose. WiserReview puts verified customer reviews on every product page before the rush.
7-day free trial · from $6.75 a month, billed yearly